Deconstructor of Fun•June 5, 2025•7 min read•1 views
Written by Michail Katkoff , a weathered game industry survivor. Claims he’s not a trendsetter — yet here you are, reading his take on what’s next. We highly recommend downloading the interactive Sensor Tower State of Gaming Report here .
In an industry obsessed with launches, velocity, and “what’s next,” we often miss the quieter, more inconvenient truth: maturity. It doesn’t trend. It doesn’t spike.
But it’s the defining shape of mobile gaming in 2025. The app stores aren’t empty—but they are quieter. The hits aren’t gone—but they are older.
The players haven’t left—but they’re spending their time—and money—very differently. So we sat down with Sam Aune, Gaming Insights Analyst at Sensor Tower and author of the State of Mobile Gaming report, to talk through the changes that aren’t making headlines—but should. The game hasn’t ended.
It’s just changed. And if you’re not evolving with it, you’re already behind. 1.
A Plateau That Feels Like Gravity Let’s start with the obvious: mobile game downloads have been flat or declining since 2020. The easy answer is COVID distortion. The hard truth is structural saturation.
When Sam stripped out China, Japan, and Korea—markets that are not only mature but, in some cases, closed to most developers—the story didn’t get rosier. Downloads are down 5% year over year in the rest of the world. Not catastrophic.
Just... persistent. But while new users slow, monetization improves.
Revenue per user is rising—especially on iOS. In the Apple ecosystem, downloads are up 2% over the past year. Android remains the volume play, especially in emerging markets.
But iOS is the monetization engine. That divide matters more than ever. In a world where paid UA is expensive and targeting is handicapped, platform matters.
Geography matters. Audience density matters. And good, old-fashioned creativity matters most of all.
To summarize it: Innovation in gameplay is no longer optional. Innovation in marketing is how you get paid—it’s how you get seen. 2.
If Downloads Slow, Retention Becomes the Real KPI So what happens when you stop winning the download war? You start fighting for time. Or as we call it, engagement.
Time spent in games is up 8% globally. Players are playing more often, for longer sessions. Strategy games—especially survival-flavored 4X titles like Whiteout Survival and Last War —are thriving.
Shooters are sticky again. Puzzle and sim games are holding their ground. Meanwhile, geolocation is quietly slipping (sorry, * Pokémon Go and Scopely *).
Hypercasual has been chocked out by privacy changes. Even sports games are starting to miss their targets. The broader takeaway?
Depth matters. Players want games they can grow into—not just pass through. In a world where switching costs are rising (social graphs, daily streaks, sunk progression), the winners are the games that build roots, not spikes.
Live ops is no longer a post-launch function. It’s the game. 3.
Hybridcasual: The Model Eating Itself Hybridcasual was once a hopeful middle path: hypercasual reach, mid-core retention. Easy to learn, hard to master. Simple fun with broad monetization.
The dream, really. And it worked. It still works.
Hybridcasual titles grew 37% in IAP revenue this past year, with some clearing $100M annually. But success creates tension. Because once a hybridcasual game hits scale, its monetization shifts.
IAP outpaces ad revenue. Meta mechanics deepen. Effectiveness of ads drops as publishers copy each other.
Retention becomes the new religion. And suddenly, your hybridcasual game is just... casual.
As Sam put it: “We’ve had to reclassify some of the most successful hybridcasual games. ” What does that mean for developers? That hybridcasual isn’t a genre—it’s a transitional state.
A launch strategy. A ramp. The best games evolve beyond it.
The rest never leave the runway. 4. Emerging Markets: Growth Without Glamour Latin America and the Middle East saw nearly 20% growth in IAP in 2024.
It’s real. It’s sustained. But it’s still small—combined, those regions barely reach the size of Europe.
So why care? Because it’s easier to grow with a market than to conquer one . CPI is low.
The competition is lighter. And the infrastructure—both technological and institutional—is catching up fast. PUBG built a fortress in the Middle East.
Free Fire became a religion in Brazil. Global South markets won’t replace Tier 1 economies tomorrow. But by the time they do, it’ll be too late to get in.
5. Simulation Leads Downloads. Strategy Takes the Money.
Downloads tell you who’s curious. Revenue tells you who’s committed. , puzzle, sim, and arcade games lead in installs.
But puzzle, strategy, and casino take the lion’s share of revenue. That gap is instructive. The decline of RPGs is also striking.
Once the darling of mobile monetization, RPGs are faltering under their own weight. Too many mechanics. Too much grind.
Too high marketing costs. Too much... time.
In contrast, strategy games have grown by simplifying their face while keeping their soul. Arcade-style UA creatives act as bait. The depth comes later.
It’s the Trojan Horse model—and it works. 6. LTV Is a High-Roller’s Game We all love high LTV.
Until we meet its dark twin: high CPI. Genres like 4X strategy and match swap deliver incredible monetization. But they’re walled gardens now—populated by incumbents with deep content pools, fat UA budgets, and loyal whales.
If you’re not Scopely, Dream, or Supercell, breaking in is a fantasy. So should developers go niche? Sam says maybe—but cautiously.
Niches limit upside and complicate UA. , arcade-style ads, IP hooks) to attract users, then filter into complexity. 7.
Designing for Gen Z: Less Grind, More Vibes The median mobile gamer is getting younger. The dominant demographic is now 18–34. Which means you’re not building for nostalgia.
You’re building for immediacy. Gen Z expects snackable gameplay, social features, and a modern aesthetic. Think PvP, co-op, TikTok- native visuals.
Think Brawl Stars meets Genshin , not Solitaire Blitz . ” It’s not about pandering. It’s about being native to the culture they live in.
(for a proper Gen Z insights > How to Engage Gen Z ) 8. Gender Targeting: Fantasy or Future? Puzzle and lifestyle still skew female.
Sports and strategy still skew male. But that line is blurring. Whiteout Survival has nearly a 50/50 gender split.
Royal Match is more male than you’d expect. Meanwhile, “puzzle games for men”—like Chrome Valley Customs —launched with hype but fizzled fast. Lesson?
Gender-targeted design can work—but it’s not about colors or themes. It’s about emotional resonance. Fixing trucks isn’t enough.
The game still has to be good. 9. New Games Are Rare.
Good Games Are Rarer. 2024 saw fewer new launches than any year since 2012. But the games that did launch took their time.
The average successful game spent over 200 days in soft launch. More importantly, IP is everywhere. 20% of the top 10 launches used licensed IP.
Another 30% leaned on IP collabs. Whether it’s anime, Marvel, Monopoly, or Fate/Stay Night , the message is clear: attention is a borrowed asset now. Players need a reason to care before they even download.
IP gives you that edge. 10. Market Concentration: Where Hope Goes to Die Here’s a stat to ruin your pitch deck: In some subgenres, the top two games account for over 80% of revenue.
And that concentration is rising, not falling. Roblox owns sandbox. Clash of Clans still owns base-building.
Attempts to dethrone genre kings haven’t failed because they were bad—they failed because the incumbents are unkillable. But not all hope is lost. Monopoly Go didn’t beat Coin Master .
It expanded the market. It brought in a new audience, with new packaging, new polish, and a nostalgic IP. That’s the real strategy now: don’t take share.
Grow the category. Philosophical Musing: This Is What Maturity Feels Like Mobile gaming isn’t dying. It’s aging.
And aging means trade-offs. We’re not in the Wild West anymore. We’re in the age of dynasties, moats, and incremental gains.
There are fewer shots. But the ones that land go further. So don’t ask how to build the next hit.
Ask how to build something worth returning to. Again and again and again. Because in 2025, attention isn’t earned once.
Deconstructor of FunJune 5, 20257 min read1 views