The Audit of Our 2024 Predictions

Written by Michail Katkoff , founder of Deconstructor of Fun and a games industry veteran with 15 years of experience in building, operating, and scaling games and game companies. Throwing out predictions is easy. Tapping yourself on the back for a correct prediction is rewarding.

But being open about your track record is essential. We certainly don’t always get it right. Our last year’s record was (7/8) .

But you can count on us to be the first to call ourselves out when that happens. Our track record for 2024 predictions: 4 correct 1 partly correct 1 wrong     See what we missed and why below. Most importantly, make sure to sign up for our newsletter to be the first to read our predictions for 2025 .

Prediction 1: Lean Times Drag On CORRECT The market didn’t bounce back to the 20% year-over-year growth we’ve been used to. Asian markets declined while the rest of the world stagnated. Number of games in the stores continued to decline while new game launches found yet again a record low.

All of the above meant that the jobs lost didn’t come back. Gone are the days when the market grew 20% annually on overage. Three years of stagnated IAP revenue with Asian markets steadily declining.

  The number of new games entering the market reached another record low while the number of games in the stores continued to decline. Lockdowns massively boosted demand for games. When people were once again free, consumer habits changed significantly.

But it wasn’t just the rekindling of outdoor activities that impacted gaming.    Not to mention the economic challenges, which on individual household level decreased the disposable income.   To top it all, the geopolitical environment only got worse in 2024.

  Due to the five factors above, the mobile market continued to stagnate. Here’s an early prediction: as long as the 5 fundamental factors above don’t drastically change, the stagnation will continue . Sign up to our newsletter and be the first one to get our 2025 predictions .

Prediction 2: User Acquisition Stabilizes  CORRECT In late 2023, the user acquisition (UA) market started showing signs of stabilization post the privacy the Apple’s privacy enforcments.   The overall IAP revenues shot up after the decline in 2023. Partly this is due to companies adjusting to the new UA landscape.

Partly due to the newfound focus on live ops, which is driven by the difficulties of launching new games in the post-IDFA market. We also predicted that over the next few years, core games are expected to face ongoing struggles, while casual games continue to rise in popularity. As you can see below, we were correct.